Global beverage alcohol volumes are set to fall more sharply than expected in 2025, according to a new mid-year forecast from the IWSR, which highlights significant downturns in beer consumption across the US and China. Meanwhile, new UK data shared with Drinks Retailing reveals further pressure on wine and spirits, but renewed momentum for cider and RTDs.

In its first-ever mid-year forecast update, the analytics firm now expects total beverage alcohol volumes to fall by 0.4% in 2025, compared with the 0.2% decline predicted in May. Value performance has similarly weakened, with the 2025 outlook revised from -0.5% to -0.7%.

This downgrade is largely driven by beer, which is now forecast to decline 0.2% globally in 2025, reversing earlier expectations of 0.2% growth. The IWSR noted how beer’s large serving sizes mean even small shifts can disproportionately impact the overall alcohol market.

IWSR MD & president Marten Lodewijks said economic and policy pressures are weighing heavily on the US and China.

He said: “Beer consumption is particularly tied to going out to bars and restaurants, but consumers in the US are choosing to stay at home more than expected because of cost-of-living pressures. When consumers buy alcohol to entertain at home, they make different purchasing decisions, and beer often loses out.

In China, he added, “consumption has been hit by a government crackdown on luxury goods and a ban on alcohol at public sector events”. Meanwhile, weaker economic growth is reducing both on-trade spending and wider beverage alcohol consumption. Beer and brandy forecasts for China have therefore been adjusted downward.

Despite these revisions, the IWSR’s 2026 global growth outlook remains unchanged at 0% for both volume and value. Category forecasts for 2025 now show declines of 1.3% for spirits and 2.4% for wine, while RTDs remain the only global category set for growth at 1.3%.

The UK view

Requested by Drinks Retailing, fresh UK data for the year 2024-2025 shows that the total beverage alcohol volume outlook remains unchanged at -0.7% year-on-year. Within this decline, category-level movements highlight clear shifts in consumer behaviour:

• The 2025 UK wine volume forecast has been downgraded from -3% (May) to -4% (October).
• The 2025 UK spirits forecast has been downgraded from -2% to -3%.
• The 2024 UK cider forecast has been upgraded from 0% to +1%.
• The 2024 UK RTD forecast has been upgraded sharply from 0% to +6%.

Patrick Fisher, IWSR senior analyst for the UK and Ireland, said the shifts reflect a combination of duty pressure, changing drinking patterns and favourable summer conditions.

“Higher duties are suppressing wine volumes and the flight out of spirits into longer and lighter serves continues. Better weather has boosted sales of cider and also provided an additional fillip to the buoyant RTD segment,” he said.