Want to know what’s going to happen to wine? Just ask an indie, says Jason Millar

Independent merchants’ fragmented representation and local footprint mean they are often overlooked, but they tend to see what’s coming down the tracks: the wines that are gaining momentum, which regions are rising and falling and where price fatigue is setting in, even among their relatively high-spending clientele.

After all, indies were selling natural wine before there were natural wine bars, dropping out of Bordeaux en primeur before the 2009 and 2010 debacles and building markets for wines like Assyrtiko and Swartland white blends over a decade ago. Today’s innovative supermarket range is often yesterday’s independent offering.

There is no better way to see what tomorrow’s wine market will look like. The key messages from independents in 2026 are that footfall and volume are dramatically down and value is static as customers are not increasing their spend in real terms. Meanwhile, fresh reds and sparkling wines are the bright spots in their ranges.

Buyers’ passion and curiosity remain vital, but no longer drive the business model. Cashflow and stockholding are shaping ranges far more aggressively. Where an indie might once have stocked multiple Blaufränkisch wines from different suppliers, many are now consolidating those sales through a single line.

It is the passing of an era when a customer could walk into an indie and be offered several Kabinett Riesling vintages, five different producers of Barbaresco or a selection of manzanilla sherries that were stocked on principle and mostly bought by the staff.

Premiumisation is over. If sales figures – rarely adjusted for inflation and duty – show prices trending up, it is not because customers are choosing to spend more but because they are being forced to.

Indies are becoming far more disciplined: trimming ranges, cutting opening hours, reducing stockholdings and rethinking the Oddbins-era model of a manager and assistant manager in every store.

Mark Wrigglesworth, owner of The Good Wine Shop, feels positive about overcoming the challenges but acknowledges the need to be more efficient than ever. “We have trimmed over 100 lines, tightening our range and narrowing the wines we carry,” he says. “We are now focusing on suppliers, both large and small, that understand what we need and are willing to have conversations about pricing.

After years of having the wines they championed poached by multiples and grocers, it seems indies have nabbed something in return – range ruthlessness.

Lower footfall means retailers need wines that bring customers back for a second bottle. There is no longer room for one-hit wonders. Leaner retail ranges mean fewer opportunities for importers and agents to secure listings, forcing them to slim down their portfolios in turn.

“What buyers want now are simple, delicious, everyday wines at affordable prices,” says Mike Best MW, wine product manager at Boutinot, a key supplier to independents. In wine, such warnings move slowly, travelling like ancient signal fires. Something has to be ablaze before anyone takes notice and it takes a lot of conflagrations for the message to be fully relayed.

The memo from the shop floors to the vineyards is that wine has become top heavy and needs to be rebalanced for today’s customers. Wineries have two choices: ignore the problem and be replaced by market-oriented beer, spirits or RTDs, or listen to what people on the ground are telling them.

There is a major commercial opportunity for producers who hear this feedback and strive to deliver wines that work for independents. But, as Best succinctly puts it: “Whatever questions we might have in the trade, the answer is not going to be simply more wine.”