It’s clear that 2024 is proving to be another testing year for the drinks trade. Until recent weeks, we had been seeing consumer confidence rising, though without this resulting in a meaningful positive change in consumer behaviour.

Although consumers were saying they believed that the next 12 months were likely to be better than the previous year, the reality for some was that their real income was still down. Others were not yet confident enough to release the purse strings.

Recent figures from GFK’s Consumer Confidence Index show that the fragile confidence that had been built up over the previous 12 months had been wiped out by September, seemingly as a result of the government’s downbeat pre-budget rhetoric.

Combining what I see in our recent sales figures with the feedback from trade customers, it seems that customers currently fall into two main camps: those who are maintaining their frequency of purchase but trading down to balance their personal finances; and those who are spending less often but are choosing to treat themselves when they do spend.

Consumer confidence and the willingness to spend money will rise when consumers feel that the economy and their own personal finances are improving and will continue to do so.

It’s a feeling, a judgement, a sentiment – and it doesn’t always reflect an actual change in the amount of money they have.

That’s one reason consumer confidence has fallen so sharply since the government started making its doomsday pronouncements ahead of the Budget, even though they haven’t yet resulted in any actual change in disposable incomes. I am sure this has led to an even tougher period for the trade.

However, regardless of the actual policies announced, the Budget on October 30 is likely to bring an upturn in fortunes, just because consumers will then know what to expect.

Put another way, I believe that any current negative reaction is as much to do with uncertainty as any hints about actual policies.

However, that isn’t to let politicians off the hook. Key decisions around whether to freeze duty, and the areas in which they choose to increase taxes or remove allowances, will have a significant impact on whether economic growth materialises.

Let’s hope they remember that a bigger economy means higher tax revenues and build that principle into their plans.

My view on what Jeroboams can do is very simple: focus on the things we can control, the things which will make the biggest impression on consumers when they are choosing where to spend their hard-earned cash.

A motivated, focussed and empowered team is our biggest asset. They are the ones our customers come into contact with, and who’ll make sure they can switch off from their day-to-day pressures by taking a moment to enjoy the finer things in life.

We are doing our bit to help the economy grow, let’s hope the government does its bit come the Budget.