Derya Calis, senior analytics executive at NIQ, looks ahead to a football-filled summer to share her predictions for how the World Cup could influence alcohol sales
Football’s golden event is fast approaching. This year’s tournament will be the biggest ever, involving 48 nations, up from 32 last time round, with 40 extra matches – 104 in all. As the UK’s most popular sport, football brings friends together to watch the action, whether in pubs or by hosting watch parties at home. Louise Richardson, senior category development manager at Heineken UK, sees a big opportunity for the beer and cider category as: “The 2026 World Cup will be the biggest yet with more teams and matches, bringing in more consumers and occasions for retailers to capture beer and cider sales.”
So, what will be the implications for off-trade beer sales? We analysed NielsenIQ EPOS data to assess the likely impact of the upcoming World Cup on off-trade buying behaviour and beer purchasing trends.
Late kick-offs: Where fans will watch?
With North America hosting, many fixtures fall late in UK evenings or early mornings, impacting viewing plans. England’s group games mostly kick off before midnight, supporting pub traffic, but Scotland faces tougher slots, 11pm and even 2am, pushing fans towards sofas and small watch parties. If home nations progress, extended licensing could help pubs capture late-night trade, but the real story is in at-home occasions. Late starts mean compressed pre-match shopping windows and more beer-run missions for chilled multipacks and shareable formats.
Richardson highlights the need to promote across different pack formats, adding: “Driving category visibility in-store and online will be crucial to inspire shoppers around social viewing occasions and encourage trade-up into premium brands. With everything from late-night kick-offs to weekday fixtures, activating across multiple pack formats will be key to meeting every shopper mission.”
Weather: Still the ultimate volume driver
The tournament coincides with summer, a period that can turbocharge or break beer sales. Warm weather has historically boosted demand, and if 2026 mirrors recent summers, outdoor parties and garden screenings will be key consumption moments. Retailers should prepare for spikes during sunny spells, as they can transform a modest uplift into a bumper season. While no one can control the weather and the extent of uplift will also depend on how good weather coincides with key matches, planning for flexibility, such as ensuring stock availability and promotional readiness, will be critical.
Economic sensitivity and shopper mindset
Beyond football and weather, broader economic conditions will influence consumer behaviour. Cost of living pressures remain a reality, and shoppers are likely to stay price conscious into the summer. Retailers should aim to strike a balance between offering value and maintaining margins, using smart promotions and multipack deals to encourage trade-up without alienating budget-conscious consumers.
How far the home nations progress
There’s no way around it: tournament progression is a volume accelerator. Matchday cycles, repeat purchases and celebratory spikes all stack up when home nations advance. England’s group stage timings help hospitality and community viewing; Scotland’s late nights grow the case for at-home parties and late licence venues. If Wales join the party via the play-offs, UK viewing windows widen further, creating more occasions across regions.
What impact can we expect from the world cup?
Here are three possible scenarios based on different weather outcomes and the performance of the home nations:
- Tough summer: In the worst-case scenario – wet, cool weather and early exit(s) for home nations – we can expect muted demand and risk of year-on-year volume declines in off-trade beer sales, with watch parties dampened by rain and sentiment.
- Moderate and more likely: In the moderate (and more plausible) case of average weather, with England reaching the quarter-finals, we can expect a positive uplift built around evening fixtures and watch party baskets. For context, even with poor weather, the Euro 2024 tournament delivered a 2.9% volume boost versus the previous year.
- Best-case summer of football: And if the stars align with great weather and strong England and Scotland runs, we could see double-digit uplifts around peak match windows and an extremely welcome boost for UK beer manufacturers with stacked off-trade occasions such as barbecues, watch parties and communal viewing after dark.
