The OIV offered a counter viewpoint to the pessimism percolating around shifting consumer habits at last week’s Wine Paris, with the latest data breakdowns showing a wine sector that is undergoing a structural evolution rather than an abrupt downturn.

Last week’s show in the French capital saw the OIV take the stage to share findings from its brand-new report, Global Wine Consumption Trends, where head of statistics Giorgio Delgrosso acknowledged that the wine category is in a challenging, if transitional, phase.

According to the data, global wine consumption reached a generational low in 2024 when around 214 mhl was consumed. This marks a decline of more than 10% over the past decade and the weakest level seen in over 60 years. Inflationary pressures, economic uncertainty, geopolitical disruption and changing drinking habits have all contributed to the slowdown.

Consumption at lowest level since 1961

However, perspective matters. Looking back over the last 100 years, the same data set shows that global wine consumption has moved through multiple cycles, from European dominance in the early 20th century to the rapid expansion of New World markets in the post-war decades, followed by periods of contraction and relative stabilisation in the 1990s.

Delgrosso said: “Since the end of that last century, global consumption has fluctuated between about 220 and 250 mhl, but with an important structural change: Europe continued to decline gradually, while North America and Asia grew, at least until very recently.

“In the last few years, consumption has also weakened in North America and Asia, bringing global volumes to their lowest level since the early 1960s. But the key point is this: what is structurally new today is not how much wine is consumed, but where and how it is consumed. Wine consumption is now highly globally diversified across 194 countries.”

The snapshot in the graph above shows how the geographical balance of global wine consumption has shifted over time.

Europe, shown in blue, was once almost the entire market, accounting for around 90% of global consumption in the 1920s and 1930s. Today, it still dominates, but share has fallen to about 60%.

South America expanded strongly in the first half of the 20th century, but has since lost some relative weight, mainly reflecting the long-term decline in consumption in Argentina.

North America shows one of the most striking changes: from a marginal role a century ago, it now represents nearly 17% of global consumption. The US has become the world’s leading wine market, both in volume (33 mhl) and in value. It is followed by France and Italy at 23 mhl and 22 mhl respectively.

Finally, Asia and Oceania illustrate the true globalisation of wine consumption. From almost negligible shares in the 1920s, Asia now accounts for around 10% of global consumption, and Oceania about 3%.

Among the world’s top 20 markets, only Italy, Portugal and South Africa consume more wine today than they did a decade ago.

New markets emerge

Key to this picture – wine’s current position and future resilience – is the world’s emerging growth opportunities. The past decade’s fast-growing markets include South Korea, India, Mexico, Colombia, Morocco and Côte d’Ivoire, which – while still relatively small in volume – point to the changing geography of demand.

“These are markets to watch closely over the next five to ten years,” Delgrosso said.

Increasingly, future expansion will depend on developing these new geographies, especially as mature markets face declines on per-capita consumption and as red wine consumption continues to stagnate.

Red wine under pressure

Red’s share of global wine consumption has undeniably fallen, from around 53% in the mid-2000s to roughly 46% today – a decline equivalent to more than 20 mhl – but the reasons vary by market. In countries such as Argentina, total wine consumption has contracted overall, pulling red down with it. Meanwhile, in Germany, consumers have increasingly switched from red to white and rosé despite relatively stable overall volumes. France combines both dynamics: falling consumption and a significant shift in preference away from red.

The result is a broad rebalancing of the global wine mix, with white (44% of global share) and rosé (9.9%) gaining share over the past two decades.

Meanwhile, sparkling wine continues to offer breathing space.

Global sparkling consumption has climbed steadily to around 19 mhl, with an average annual growth rate of roughly 3.5%. Its share of global wine consumption has increased from less than 5% two decades ago to around 8.5% today.

Trade becomes central to growth

The presentation also emphasised the growing role of international trade in shaping wine demand.

The share of wine consumed outside its country of origin has risen dramatically, from around 10% in the mid-20th century to close to 50% today, illustrating how globalised the category has become.

Import-heavy markets such as the UK, Canada and Japan rely on international supply to support consumption, while re-exports (now representing roughly €4.6bn in value) have become a structural component of global distribution.

This increasing interdependence means that trade policy, logistics and geopolitical shifts will continue to have outsized influence on availability, pricing and category growth.

Long-term resilience remains

While the short-term narrative is one of contraction, the OIV’s broader message was one of resilience and adaptation.

As Delgrosso says, “The wine sector is fundamentally a long-term sector…and stability has never been the norm. Over the past century, the sector has continuously transformed in production, markets, geographies and consumption patterns, and these transformations have ultimately expanded both its value and its reach.”

The other key takeaway is that aggregate figures can hide important dynamics. While global consumption is currently declining, not all categories are affected in the same way, illustrated by the strong performance of sparkling wines.

As we have seen, the role of international trade will also be integral to the wine sector’s future fortunes. The broadening of global markets has enabled the expansion of markets and consumer preferences worldwide, even if that means exposing the sector to a wider mix of economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

With thanks to the OIV for sharing its data