With many national and independent retailers reporting a busy festive season in 2025, Chris Boiling seeks predictions for 2026. How will the cost of living crisis reshape the UK’s festive wine market?
Wine consumers will continue to trade up this Christmas, despite the current cost of living crisis. That is the view of several leading figures in the wine industry. But they also caution that customers are looking for value and the surge could come later than ever. Majestic, for example, is expecting December 23 to be its biggest trading day.
Christmas remains the wine trade’s most crucial period. Even cautious shoppers have traditionally traded up, splashing out on a special bottle to accompany Christmas lunch. Gift purchases have also helped lift average bottle prices in the final quarter of the year.
The Bank of England estimates that UK households spend almost 30% more on food and drink in December than in a typical month, with spending on alcoholic drinks rising by about 38%. So the opportunity is still there – but drinks retailers may need to tweak their offer, rethink their pricing and redefine ‘premium’, according to several industry leaders.
Lanchester Wines head of retail Rebecca Vernon points out: “We’ve seen a noticeable shift from luxury towards value-led premium. Consumers still want to enjoy something special at Christmas, but they are increasingly looking for wines that over-deliver at a sensible price point.” Daisy Shepherdson, head of range at wine merchant Laithwaites, agrees. She tells Drinks Retailing: “We expect customers to be highly value-aware this Christmas but not unwilling to spend. Even when things feel tight, we know they still want Christmas to feel special.”
Are there reasons to be cheerful?
Research firm NIQ says Christmas is “a protected occasion”. Rather than cutting spending altogether, shoppers are becoming more selective, focusing their budgets on wines for festive meals, entertaining and gifting.
Luis Ancona Gómez, senior insights analyst at NIQ, says: “Shoppers are buying fewer bottles overall, but they’re still willing to invest in quality for key Christmas moments.”
Justin Liddle, MD at wine importer Mentzendorff, expands on this. “We expect to see a continuation of the ‘fewer but better’ mindset, with diners and shoppers seeking quality, trusted brands and wines that elevate key festive occasions.”
He adds: “While value will remain essential, premium wine is well positioned because consumers often continue to invest in memorable experiences, even during more challenging economic periods.”
Will consumers continue to trade up for Christmas?
Despite ongoing economic pressures, Gómez expects Christmas to remain one of the strongest trade-up occasions of the year.
Wines priced above £10 have outperformed the total wine market for the past two Christmases, growing 11.4% versus 3.2% in Christmas 2024 and 8.5% versus 1.4% in Christmas 2025. Their share of total light wine sales has increased from 10.2% in Christmas 2023 to 11.8% in Christmas 2025.
The trend was particularly evident in the final run-in last year. In the week before Christmas, the share of wines priced at more than £13 reached 14%, while the £12-13 tier gained share and lower-priced tiers softened.
Hatch Mansfield director of marketing Sophie Wren said: “The final quarter of the year is so important for above-average-priced purchases in wine, with the average selling price in the four weeks leading up to Christmas typically above the 52-week average.”
But there were some notes of caution, as trading up has a downside.
Majestic Retail MD Elizabeth Newman explains: “We’re already seeing consumers putting one less bottle in their basket but spending a little bit more on every bottle they choose. I think that habit becomes even more pronounced at special occasions like Christmas, when people want guaranteed quality and bang for their buck.”
Lanchester Wines’ Vernon puts it this way: “We don’t expect consumers to stop trading up at Christmas, but we do expect them to be more selective. Rather than increasing overall spend, we’re seeing shoppers become far more deliberate with their purchases. A customer who might usually buy six bottles during a main grocery shop may instead buy three or four bottles and spend a little more per bottle for Christmas Day entertaining or gifting.”
Sarah Pollard, head of marketing at Gonzalez Byass UK, adds: “Rather than trading up indiscriminately, consumers are looking for wines that offer genuine quality, provenance and reliability at a price that represents good value.”
What is the likely price sweet spot?
Wren says: “For volume, we’ll be looking closely at the £10-15 price band. At that level it’s still relatively affordable, but well above the average sales price.”
Newman says: “Our sweet spot is in that £12-plus price point, which will be strong for us again this year, but we know customers like to trade into fine wines that are £20 or more to really wow their friends and family with something special at Christmas. We get thousands of new customers every Christmas looking to trade up from the supermarkets.”
Hatch Manfield’s Wren confirms the £15-20 price band is in strong growth “albeit from a more modest base”. She adds: “There is a lot of high-quality value for money to be found there.”
Hallgarten’s Clare Cutler, sales director for off-trade national accounts, says there is “a strong at-home premiumisation effect” at this price level: “When you compare the cost of a couple of drinks in a pub or restaurant – which can easily reach £15 – to the price of a beautiful, retail-bought £15-20 bottle enjoyed at home, the value proposition of the latter becomes incredibly compelling.”
Wren says the £30-50 level “is still a strong price bracket. At this level wine fans are much more involved with the category and quite knowledgeable”.
Hallgarten’s Joshua Butler, business development director for regional off-trade, also believes the £35-50 bracket “will remain remarkably consistent” for gifting and Christmas Day wines. He points out: “Consumers still want to mark the occasion with something truly special.”
Is gifting still an opportunity?
Wine remains the UK’s most gifted alcohol category, according to
NIQ, with 21% of shoppers purchasing wine as a Christmas gift, while 40% buy alcohol as a gift overall. Added to this, Christmas and other special occasions are often cited by consumers as the reason for their alcohol purchases.
But shoppers are becoming more considered in their gifting choices. “They’re focusing on quality and choosing wines they know the recipient will appreciate, which continues to support premium wine sales at Christmas,” says Gómez.
Majestic’s Newman adds: “Gifting is becoming more purposeful and discovery-led. Shoppers want to give a gift that has a meaningful story and shows they’ve put some thought into the purchase, not just picked it up at the last-minute.
“There’s a bit of a shift away from generic off-the-shelf gift sets as a result, towards bottles with real heritage.
“I think Christmas will come late, again,” says Newman. “We say it every year, but that last-minute rush of customers seems to come later and later every Christmas, I’d be really surprised if 23 December isn’t our biggest trading day of the festive season
again this year.”
