Low-alcohol spirits, no-alcohol spirits and RTDs are the three most important trends for the future of the spirits industry, according to the ProSpirits report, put together by ProWein in collaboration with Geisenheim University.

Dr. Simone Loose, professor in the department of wine and beverage research at Geisenheim University, presented the findings. She said that 62% of study participants anticipated low-alcohol spirits to perform well in the next two years, 54% said the same of RTDs and 53% of no-alcohol spirits. 

By 2030, experts also predicted that alcohol-free spirits could take up to a 10% volume share and 8% value share of the spirits sector. 

This was based on a study of 216 experts across 39 countries, including producers, retailers, importers, exporters, wholesalers and the on-trade. 

Following this, 52% of participants said they expected rum to perform well, 47% said whisky, 44% said tequila and mezcal, while only 39% said gin. “These are what producers are saying they believe will grow in the future,” explained Loose. 

The report – which focused on challenges, opportunities and trends – concluded that the most prominent headwinds in the spirits industry were financial, mirroring the rest of the alcohol industry. 

A total of 56% of participants named reduced consumer spending power as one of the largest threats to the industry, followed by 52% naming global economic downturns. 

Aside from this, Loose suggested that the other major future challenge for spirits will be found in stricter alcohol policies and taxes. “The next big thing besides economics is regulations,” which often come from “the World Health Organisation saying alcohol is dangerous.” 

Johan ten Doornkaat, MD at consultancy firm NWDN GmbH and co-presenter with Loose, also raised the issue of the global sourcing of commodities as a threat. 

In the context of both war and climate change, sourcing will become a larger issue, Doornkaat said, adding: “Everyone is aware that if climate change goes on the way it has been, we will have a problem in the next decade.” 

Despite the headwinds, both Loose and Doornkaat said there were plenty of bright spots too. Referencing the survey results, Loose said that 52% of trade and 46% of producers said premiumisation was a key opportunity for revenue growth. 

Following this, both trade and producers heralded the importance of expanding into more channels and new markets in search of consumers. 

One area that could yield growth – but which is currently not utilised well within the trade – is digitalisation. 

Reflecting the survey results, Loose explained that 70% of respondents believed a strong digital presence could bring in more business. However, 64% of participants said they needed to improve their digital marketing skills. 

Reflecting on his experience as a consultant, Doornkaat said: “The vast majority of companies are very aware of their lack of competency with digital but they don’t know what to do about it,” implying the need for calling in extra expertise. 

The sentiment on AI usage however was not as unanimous, Loose noted, with only 42% of respondents saying they think artificial intelligence will help connect businesses with spirits drinkers. 

Doornkaat suggested that this was likely connected to wary feelings around AI in popular culture as the technology overcomes teething issues. 

All in all, these were interesting results from the inaugural ProSpirits Report, which is scheduled to return again in 2026.