The IWSR has predicted that global alcohol consumption by volume will continue to decline for a further six years before returning to growth in 2031.
As part of the insight provider’s annual global data release, the IWSR said that, following these declines, global volume is forecast to recover to its 2025 level by 2035, representing a total volume decline of 1% over the course of the decade.
Over the next 10 years, the location of the global alcohol market is also set to shift, moving away from China, North America and Europe towards emerging markets such as India, South America and Africa.
According to the report, the number of beverage alcohol servings consumed in China will drop by 19% by 2035. Meanwhile, consumption in the US is forecast to decrease by 18%, Japan by 15%, Germany by 14% and the UK by 13%.
In contrast, servings consumed in Mexico are expected to increase by 13%, Vietnam by 15%, Colombia by 26% and India by 38%.
A key growth engine for the industry, India is forecast to surpass the US by 2032, becoming the world’s second-largest beverage alcohol market after China.
Elsewhere, the IWSR confirmed that moderation will continue to play an important role in the industry over the next decade. However, it also noted that the rate of decline is slowing.
In line with current trends, global wine consumption is forecast to fall by 14% over the next decade, while spirits consumption will decline by 2% and beer by 1%. Growth in the RTD category is expected to continue, with volumes forecast to increase by 17%.
On the trend prediction, Marten Lodewijks, president and MD of IWSR, said: “The forecast stabilization in global beverage alcohol volumes is good news for the industry, but there are still plenty of challenges ahead.
“2035 will be a vastly different market landscape than the one we see today, and producers will need to cater to changing consumer tastes in established markets as well as prepare for significant changes in where consumption is taking place. Companies that only rely on past successes to carry them through the next decade will face serious challenges.”
